NATO braces for a long fight as Putin’s forces regroup for a new and uglier phase in the battle for Ukraine.

(Originally published April 1 in “What in the World“) Russia is pulling a play from America’s Vietnam playbook, “negotiating from strength,” by bombing Ukrainian cities while promising at peace talks to pull back. The barrage lends credence to speculation that Moscow’s overtures were merely a way to buy time and regroup before a new offensive. Indeed, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization says Russian troops are merely repositioning around Kyiv. They’re being joined by mercenaries from Syria, where they’ll face off against volunteers from the West fighting for Ukraine.

Putin is, meanwhile, cornering himself, with Biden saying he’s fired many advisers and appears to be “self-isolating.” This undoubtedly makes Putin even more dangerous, as he’s now receiving only news and analysis that loyal advisers think support his views. A cornered Putin is more likely to see the war as a fight for Russia’s survival and is more likely to resort to biological, chemical or nuclear weapons to defend it.

NATO members, meanwhile, are stepping up military spending to counter Russia’s new threat. After Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, NATO members pledged to spend at least 2% of their GDP on defense. Only eight of NATO’s 30 members so far meet that criteria, led naturally by the United States.