As Russia moves to subjugate Ukraine’s breakaway East, weapons flow in from NATO—and from China.
(Originally published April 11 in “What in the World“) As Russia readies for a big offensive in eastern Ukraine’s breakaway Donbas region, China over the weekend delivered surface-to-air missiles to Russia’s Balkan ally Serbia. While the purchase was made back in 2019, the timing of the delivery can’t be a coincidence: it must certainly be a not-so-subtle response by Beijing to the delivery of weapons to Ukraine and the buildup of NATO forces in Serbia’s neighbors Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania.
With Russian troops in northern Ukraine turning east to encircle the eastern Donbas region, Ukraine is lobbying NATO provide it with more, heavier weapons to fight a more conventional type of war. There seems little doubt that NATO will provide it, with more Western politicians pinning their flag to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s survival, including British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s surprise visit to Kyiv on Saturday, during he pledged to send Ukraine armored vehicles and anti-ship missiles.
A Czech delivery of Soviet-era tanks to Ukraine now appears to be part of Washington’s adoption of an earlier Polish proposal for fighter jets: NATO’s former Warsaw Pact members will hand Ukraine their old Soviet hand-me-downs in return for newer arms from the U.S. Washington rejected Poland’s idea that it give Ukraine MiGs in return for F-16s, in part because Poland wanted to fly its MiGs first to Germany so that, when they flew into Ukraine, they wouldn’t be mistaken by Moscow as an aerial assault by Poland. Apparently Slovakia isn’t worried about Moscow seeing tanks rolling across its own border with Ukraine.
The question for NATO is how far to take its support and towards what goal. Divisions are forming between NATO members, with France, Germany and Turkey favoring negotiation and compromise, while former Warsaw Pact in Central and Eastern Europe (and London) say Russian President Vladimir Putin must be denied victory at all costs.
The Pentagon, meanwhile, is training roughly a dozen Ukrainian soldiers who came to the U.S. before Russia’s invasion how to use armed “Switchblade” anti-personnel drones when they ship back to home fight Russia. Ukrainian forces have so far relied on Soviet-era anti-aircraft systems, as well as U.S.-made Stingers and Turkish drones to deny Russia effective air support for its ground forces.