Biden’s trip to a NATO war council may not mean all-out war, but it won’t likely mean doing nothing, either.

(Originally published March 16 in “What in the World“) U.S. President Joe Biden will head to Europe next week for a NATO summit on Ukraine. With Russian forces still unable to achieve victory in Ukraine, it’s hard to see the North Atlantic Treaty Organization declaring an all-out assault in Ukraine or on Russia (both of which could trigger nuclear conflict), but it’s also difficult to see them not shoring up defenses in the Baltics and Poland. Indeed, the United States now seems likely to rebuild its own military presence in Europe to levels not seen since the Cold War.

Still, Ukraine’s neighbors seem to prefer NATO go to war in Ukraine rather than take chances that Putin won’t invade them next. The prime ministers of Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovenia braved the Russian barrage of Kyiv to train to the Ukrainian capital and pledge their support to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Before his meeting with Zelensky, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said “Europe must guarantee Ukraine’s independence and ensure that it is ready to help in Ukraine’s reconstruction.”

An independent Ukraine is going to be difficult to guarantee without armed intervention by NATO.