As Omicron rockets through the ranks of the vaccinated, some governments are moving to deliver boosters just 3 months after initial inoculations.

(Originally published Dec. 28 in “What in the World“) The global economy is slowly succumbing to Omicron, with France the latest to give in to the new strain’s rapid surge by reintroducing restrictions, including work from home. Paris has also joined Tel Aviv in cutting the minimum time between vaccination and booster to just three months.

But the U.S. still keeps placing its faith in vaccines and testing, since Americans have shown little collective willingness to make even the slightest sacrifice to fight the virus. Omicron’s rapid spread across California and the rest of the country has prompted White House chief medical advisor Anthony Fauci to suggest that anyone boarding a flight within the U.S. be required to prove vaccination. He later backtracked on that statement, suggesting that he didn’t expect a vaccine mandate for flying would happen. Fauci also recommended against large New Year’s Eve celebrations, but we all know how that will go, too. Meanwhile, hospitalizations are rising just as deliveries of medical supplies join the global supply-chain snafu.

In fact, as more and more people conclude that the pandemic is ending and Omicron a “like the flu” virus we can live with, the actual outlook for ending the pandemic is growing darker by the day. Scientists sifting through early data are learning that Omicron isn’t all that much more contagious than Delta, but that our current vaccines are only slightly better than useless against it. That’s why it’s spreading so rapidly: it’s being carried and transmitted by infected, often asymptomatic, vaccinated individuals.

While our current vaccines can do is reduce the risk of Omicron infection in the first few months when antibodies against Covid Classic are at a peak in the body. As that immunity starts to ebb even slightly, the vaccines’ effectiveness drops to merely preventing the most severe types of illness. How quickly that effectiveness drops and how what the odds are after how many months of contracting and/or falling ill from an Omicron infection is anyone’s guess—one recent estimate puts the risk of infection at 75% with vaccination, and 35% with a recent booster.

Which explains the rush by governments to get boosters into their vaccinated populations. If we don’t get a vaccine targeted for Omicron soon, we could be looking at an endless cycle of quarterly booster shots just to keep us from continually becoming vulnerable to Omicron, which thanks to humans’ unwillingness to submit to any sustained (two-week) restrictions on gathering and movement, will now be with us until it is able to produce its own improved version of itself.

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