Even as American rockets help Ukraine eject Russian invaders, it’s rain that’s reshaping the map

(Originally published Sept. 15 in “What in the World“) Every war is in retrospect won in part by some new and crucial weapon that makes the difference. Some point to the M1 semiautomatic rifle on the battlefields of World War II, the AK-47 assault rifle in Vietnam, the Stinger shoulder-fired surface-to-air missile in the mujaheddin’s victory over the Soviets in Afghanistan and the laser-guided Tomahawk cruise missile in the Gulf War.

If Ukraine manages to defeat Russia, it seems certain that the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or Himars, will go down in history as the weapon that won the war. The Himars fire 90kg warheads with satellite-guided precision, enabling Ukraine to destroy over 400 Russia targets, including weapons depots and command posts, from 80km away. Crucially, they are essentially missile-firing trucks, allowing Ukrainian forces to “shoot and scoot” before the Russians can fire back and destroy them.

But some say it was the B-29 bomber that won World War II. Firebombing Tokyo and Dresden didn’t work. Dropping atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki did. Atomic weapons won World War II. Let’s hope Putin doesn’t dare try for a preemptive win.

As the imminent Russian threat to Western civilization appears to ebb, our focus must return to the longer-term threat of climate change. Severe weather is laying siege to our survival. The latest U.S. inflation figures showed that, even as consumer prices climbed 8.3%, food prices in August soared 11.4% as drought in the West hit farm production.

A looming rail strike won’t help. If trains stop moving, it will strain an already overburdened and understaffed trucking industry and exacerbate a shortage of shipping containers. And already shipments of fertilizer are being halted to keep them from being stranded if a strike erupts. Shipments of crops could grind to a halt today.

An extreme monsoon, meanwhile, has sparked floods that have killed more than 1,500 people and submerged much of the farmland in Pakistan, the world’s 8th largest producer of wheat and 9th largest producer of rice.

The “Saudi Arabia” of rice is India, the world’s largest exporter of the grain. And last week India, also suffering from the severe monsoon, banned exports of less-expensive “broken” rice and slapped a 20% export duty on other grades, a move that has roiled Asia’s markets for rice as traders hunt for alternative supplies from Vietnam and elsewhere.